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Election 2022: Analysis from Emory experts
Election Analysis Graphic

In the months leading up to the Nov. 8 election, Emory experts provided commentary on a broad range of topics — including polling, voting behavior, health care policy, gender and politics, and race and politics, among others — for international, national and local media.

Earlier this week, Emory political science professors Alan Abramowitz and Bernard Fraga provided a briefing on campus for the U.S. State Department’s Foreign Press Centers. An international group of about 20 foreign correspondents came to Emory’s Convocation Hall for the Nov. 7 event, where Abramowitz and Fraga shared insights about local and state politics, the impact of Georgia’s election nationally, and voter rights/ballot protection efforts.

On Thursday, Nov. 10, Candler School of Theology’s James T. and Berta R. Laney Legacy in Moral Leadership will welcome a panel of scholars and experts to campus to discuss the midterm election results. This event is free and open to the public, with advance registration required.

The Future of American Democracy: Post-Election Reflections” will be moderated by Bill Nigut, executive producer and host of Georgia Public Broadcasting’s “Political Rewind.” Panelists include Andra Gillespie, associate professor of political science at Emory; Eric Tanenblatt, global chair of public policy and regulation at Dentons; and DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond. 

Insights from Emory political scientists

Pearl Dowe serves as Asa Griggs Candler Professor of Political Science in Oxford College and Emory College.

Her research includes African American political behavior, gender and politics, and African American political leadership. Most recently, she has focused on political ambition and public leadership in African American women. 

“A needed point of discussion moving forward is the challenge that Black women face in running for statewide office,” Dowe said the morning after the election. “Black women’s voting strength and their ability to mobilize voters have been lauded, but these same women as candidates are often not supported or viewed as viable candidates.

“In this election cycle Black women candidates checked the boxes in the areas that are necessary for statewide success, they raised record-breaking amounts of campaign funds, had name recognition and previous leadership experience. But these factors still did not transcend to victory. In reviewing exit poll data, there still exists stark racialized voting. Unfortunately, Black women candidates are not viewed as an option by many white voters. For Black women voters and politicians this fact will likely influence when and how Black women use their political strength in the future.”

Bernard L. Fraga, associate professor of political science, researches American electoral politics, racial and ethnic politics, and political behavior. He has conducted a statistical analysis of voter registration records and election results. Broadly, he studies how group identities and electoral contexts impact individual political behavior.

“The ‘red wave’ that was predicted by pollsters and pundits was more of a ripple. While it looks like Republicans will reclaim a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, in many high-profile contests voters either stuck with incumbents or punished Republican candidates who were closely aligned with former President Trump,” Fraga noted. 

Here in Georgia, “Stacey Abrams and other Democrats running for statewide office got a lower share of the vote than they did in 2018, despite what will likely be a similar level of voter turnout,” Fraga said on Wednesday morning. “The one exception for Democrats is Sen. Raphael Warnock, who greatly outperformed other Democrats in the state likely due to ticket-splitting by Republicans who voted for Gov. Kemp but couldn’t support the Republican U.S. Senate nominee, Herschel Walker. That said, Walker probably did well enough to force Warnock into a runoff election that will be held on Dec. 6.”

Editor’s note: With all precincts now reporting, Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat will be decided by a runoff election on Dec. 6 between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and Herschel Walker, a Republican.

On Nov. 7, Emory political scientists Alan Abramowitz and Bernard Fraga led a briefing for international correspondents in Convocation Hall.

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